Russia's escalating strikes in Ukraine increasingly spilling into NATO, Romania says
Drones have violated Romanian airspace 23 times so far this year.
LONDON -- Romania, a NATO ally buttressing the bloc's southeastern European flank and host to around 1,000 American troops, has become the site of a sharp increase in Russian drone incursions and air-policing activity to date, data from the country's Defense Ministry shared with ABC News indicates.
Romania's border with Ukraine is demarcated by the Danube River, along which sit a host of ports that link out to Black Sea -- an increasingly active theater in Russia's war in Ukraine, as both sides expand their maritime attacks on commercial and military shipping.
As of Aug. 17, four Russian drones had been shot down in Romanian airspace, the ministry said. Romanian airspace had been violated by Russian drones at least 23 times so far this year -- already more than the 18 incidents recorded between 2022 and the end of 2025.
Drones or fragments of them were found on Romanian territory 27 times so far this year, the ministry said, a significant increase compared with the 16 such discoveries in all of 2025.
Russian officials have broadly denied any responsibility for munition incursions into neighboring nations. Thus far, there is nothing to suggest that Moscow intended to violate Romanian airspace, the ministry in Bucharest said. All drone fragments so far recovered and analyzed were of Russian origin, it added.
"Based on the data and evidence we have at this time, we cannot conclude that the increased number of drone incidents on our territory is the result of a deliberate attempt to target specific locations within our territory," the ministry told ABC News in a statement.
Rather, it appears that Romania's tally of drone incursions is swelling alongside Moscow's increasing attacks on Ukrainian targets along the Danube and the Black Sea coast.
The Defense Ministry in Bucharest said that so far this year, Russia had attacked targets close to Romania's frontier 54 times, representing a significant increase on the 28 attacks close to the border in all of 2025.
Since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, allied officials have reported confirmed or suspected Russian drone violations in Romania, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Russian drones have also been discovered in Moldova, which is not a NATO member. Russian officials have denied responsibility for all such incursions.
Stray Ukrainian drones, meanwhile, have been reported to have crashed or been intercepted in Finland, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and Bulgaria, with allied officials suggesting that Russian electronic warfare sent the craft off course.
Romania's position along the Danube puts it on the frontline of Russia's nightly strikes on Ukraine, thus forcing NATO warplanes into the air at an increasing rate. So far this year, NATO aircraft have conducted at least 42 air-policing missions in Romania, the Defense Ministry said -- more than in every year since 2022 combined.
Romanian officials have warned that the danger to border communities is very real. In May, a Russian drone carrying explosives crashed in the eastern city of Galati, injuring two people and setting fire to an apartment block.
The first-ever drone interception over Romanian airspace took place in July, quickly followed by two more interceptions over the next two days -- all conducted by Romanian F-16s. This month, a Spanish F-18 shot down a fourth Russian drone near the Moldovan border.
Constantin Spinu, a former Romanian Defense Ministry official who left his role in 2025, told ABC News that this summer's interceptions mark "a significant evolution" in the Romanian and NATO approach to Russian drone incursions.
Responding to three years of airspace violations, Spinu suggested, has allowed Romanian and allied pilots and commanders to study Russian munitions, flight patterns and capabilities -- plus their own abilities in engaging such threats. May's incident in Galati, he added, has also helped push politicians and commanders to a more assertive position.
But NATO nations are still facing a severe cost imbalance in intercepting aerial drones. An AIM-9X Sidewinder missile -- widely considered the most common Western air-to-air munition and routinely used by the U.S.-made F-16s flown by the Romanian Air Force -- can cost between $380,000 to $500,000 depending on the variant.
Romania also fields the U.S.-made Patriot surface-to-air missile system, which is armed with interceptor munitions that cost around $4 million each.
Each Russian Shahed-Geran strike drone is estimated to cost between $20,000 and $50,000, according to various estimates by analysts. The cheaper Gerbera drone variant may cost as little as $10,000 per unit.
Romania and other NATO allies are rushing to adopt versions of cheaper counter-drone munitions showcased by Ukraine. This summer, for example, Romania's military announced that the U.S.-made Merops interceptor drone was operational and had been integrated into its air defense network.
U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll told Bloomberg in March that each Merops interceptor costs around $15,000, though he said bulk orders could bring the unit cost as low as $3,000.
"You need specialized tools," Spinu said. "It takes time for any country, and especially NATO as an organization, to be able to adapt to this kind of rapid development." Still, Spinu expressed "moderate optimism" over the progress of NATO nations in developing lower-cost methods to track and intercept Russian drones.
Nonetheless, the costs of intercepting incoming munitions could prove particularly high if targets are engaged over populated areas, with drones, defensive munitions and falling debris all posing risks to people and property on the ground. "There's a very delicate calculus between the risks, the collateral consequences and the final result," Spinu said.
As the NATO-Russia standoff over Ukraine deepens and Russia's attacks in Ukraine close to allied borders grow in scale and complexity, Spinu suggested that a "hybrid intention" on Moscow's part cannot be entirely excluded when explaining why so many drones are entering NATO airspace. "They will keep trying, keep pushing, keep testing," he said.
"I think there's still room for an evolution of this phenomenon. We will see an increase in those incursions of Russian drones, targeting Ukrainian infrastructure and crossing into allied airspace."
After the incident in Galati, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said in a post to X, "Russia's reckless behaviour is a danger to us all." Rutte said he had spoken with Romanian President Nicusor Dan and "affirmed that NATO stands ready to defend every inch of allied territory."
Asked whether Russia is intentionally violating allied airspace, Andrei Tarnea -- the spokesperson for Romania's Foreign Ministry -- told ABC News that the question is incidental, though set the issue against a backdrop of longtime Russian hybrid warfare efforts against NATO.
"To speculate whether this is intentional or not would only serve, in our opinion, a debate that Moscow actually wants. It wants to dilute the responsibility of its actions," he said. "All these things are a direct consequence of Russian illegal actions."
Bucharest has "vigorously" protested the incursions, Tarnea added, pointing to collective European Union sanctions on Moscow, deeper cooperation with NATO allies and the recent interceptions of drones in Romanian airspace as evidence of an increasingly assertive stance.
Romania is, Tarnea said, "signaling that each of these violations will incur further costs to Russia -- they're not cost free." Collectively, he added, NATO is sending a clear message to Moscow that the alliance is ready, capable and willing to act.
"There's always more that can be done," Tarnea said. He added, "The question is whether we're imposing the cost fast enough, so Russia's ability to continue waging this war becomes unsustainable."
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