ABC News exit poll analysis: Keys to Democrats' sweep of major races
The economy and direction of the country were at the top of voters' minds.
How are voters in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City, and California feeling about the country, the economy and other issues? Here's what we learned from ABC News exit polls, conducted by SSRS.
Virginia
Keys to Democrat Abigail Spanberger's win in the governor's race:
The economy: Nearly half of Virginia voters said that the economy was the most important issue facing the commonwealth, and they supported Spanberger by more than 20 percentage points, according to ABC News exit polling.
Independents: Among the third of Virginia voters who call themselves independent, Spanberger led with about 6 in 10 independents supporting the Democrat and just over 4 in 10 for the Republican. In the 2021 gubernatorial election in the commonwealth, Republican Glenn Youngkin, who won the election, had support from over half of independents.
Abortion: About 6 in 10 voters said abortion should be legal in all or most cases and about 8 in 10 of them supported Spanberger.
Government workers: Roughly 6 in 10 said that federal government cuts affected their family’s finances; and by a more than 2-1 margin, they supported Spanberger over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. Spanberger had majority support from people living in households with federal government and contractor workers. She also won households who were not tied to federal government work.
Most Virginia voters said the state's economy is doing well, but few said their personal finances are improving:
Nearly 6 in 10 said that the state of the commonwealth's economy was "excellent" or "good," while 4 in 10 said the economy was "not so good" or "poor." But few Virginia voters said their families are "getting ahead" financially. Just over 1 in 10 said they were getting ahead, while about 6 in 10 said they were "holding steady" and about a quarter said they were "falling behind."
While a majority of Virginia voters who said the economy was doing well voted for Earle-Sears, a much larger majority who said it was not doing well voted for Spanberger. Majorities of both those who said they were holding steady and falling behind voted for Spanberger.
Immigration: Over half of Virginia voters said that the President Donald Trump's administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have "gone too far," and over 9 in 10 of them voted for Spanberger.
Gender: Spanberger enjoyed support from a majority of women while Earle-Sears split male voters.
Trump approval: Roughly half of Virginia voters strongly disapproved of Trump and almost all of them supported Spanberger. Virginia voters who "somewhat disapproved" of Trump split their vote. Wide majorities of those who approved of Trump supported Earle-Sears.
2024 vote: Almost all of those who supported Kamala Harris in 2024 supported Spanberger while just over 9 in 10 of those who voted for Trump supported Earle-Sears.
Age: Spanberger enjoyed majority support from every age group measured, with wider support among younger voters.
Race: Exit polls found that roughly 9 in 10 Black voters supported Spanberger, along with about two-thirds of Hispanic/Latino voters and about 8 in 10 Asian voters. A slim majority of white voters supported Earle-Sears.
Virginia voters are mostly negative about the state of the country:
about two-thirds of Virginia voters said they are either dissatisfied or angry about the way things are going in the country today -- including more than one-third who said they are angry. Over 9 in 10 self-described "angry" voters voted for Spanberger and about 6 in 10 "dissatisfied" voters did as well. A third said they were enthusiastic or satisfied, and wide majorities of them voted for Earle-Sears.
New Jersey
Keys to Democrat Mikie Sherrill's win in the governor's race:
Independents: Over half of independents supported Democrat Mikie Sherrill, according to exit poll results, along with nearly all Democrats. More than 9 in 10 Republicans supported Republican Jack Ciattarelli.
Gender: Roughly 6 in 10 New Jersey female voters supported Sherrill, while male voters in the state split their vote.
Age: By about 2-1, a majority of New Jersey voters under 45 supported Sherrill, while those 45 and older split their votes roughly evenly between the Democratic and Republican candidates for governor.
Race: Just over half of white New Jersey voters supported the Republican candidate for governor, while much wider majorities of Black, Asian and Hispanic/Latino voters supported the Democratic candidate.
Trump approval: Nearly half of New Jersey voters strongly disapproved of how Trump was handling his job as president, and an overwhelming share of these voters supported Sherrill. A smaller, but still wide majority of those who somewhat disapproved of the president also supported the Democrat, while wide margins of Trump approvers supported the Republican candidate -- but they made up a smaller share of voters.
Taxes and the economy were the most important issues for New Jersey voters:
About a third of New Jersey voters said taxes were the most important issue facing the state, while another roughly third of voters said the economy was. Similar shares of tax-focused voters supported Ciattarelli as economy-focused voters supported Sherrill. Fewer named health care, immigration or crime as their top issue.
More on how New Jersey voters are viewing the economy:
About 6 in 10 New Jersey voters said that the economy in the state was doing "not so good" or "poor," while about 4 in 10 said it was "excellent" or "good."
Sherrill had support from three-quarters of those who said the state of the economy was good or excellent, while Ciattarelli won nearly 6 in 10 of those who said the economy was not so good or poor.
New Jersey voters are largely negative on property taxes, with roughly 7 in 10 saying they were “a major problem” where they live. These voters split their vote about evenly between the candidates. Just over 7 in 10 of those who said property taxes were a minor problem or not a problem voted for Sherrill.
Additionally, about 6 in 10 New Jersey voters said electricity costs where they live were "a major problem," and these voters split roughly evenly between the two candidates.
Other issues:
- Just over half of New Jersey voters said that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement have "gone too far," while voters were split over whether the next governor should cooperate with the Trump administration on immigration enforcement.
- Almost half of New Jersey voters said that support for transgender rights in society have "gone too far." Roughly another quarter said they have not gone far enough and around a quarter said support for trans rights has been about right.
What New Jersey voters were looking for in a gubernatorial candidate:
Exit polls found that about 3 in 10 voters said they were looking for a candidate for governor who would bring needed change -- and most of these voters supported the Republican candidate. Roughly a quarter said they wanted a candidate who shared their values and about 2 in 10 said they wanted someone who would work for people like them -- and most of these voters supported the Democrat. Slightly fewer said they wanted a candidate who was honest and trustworthy; they mostly supported Sherrill as well. Under 1 in 10 said they sought a governor who was a strong leader, and they were roughly split in their vote.
Most New Jersey voters are negative about the state of the country:
About two-thirds of New Jersey voters said they were "dissatisfied" or "angry" about the way things are going in the country today -- including 4 in 10 who said they were angry. Nine in 10 voters who said they were angry supported Sherrill, along with a smaller majority of those who said they were dissatisfied. Just about a third said they were "enthusiastic" or "satisfied." Most of those voters supported Ciattarelli.
Most New Jersey voters feel political corruption is a big issue in the state:
Nine in 10 New Jersey voters said they think political corruption is a problem in New Jersey, including over half who said it’s a "major problem."
New York City
Keys to Democrat Zohran Mamdani's projected win in mayor's race:
Age: Mamdani has majority support from voters under 45 years old, while 45- to 64-year-olds roughly split their votes between Mamdani and independent Andrew Cuomo with a much smaller share going to Republican Curtis Sliwa. Over half of voters 65 and older supported Cuomo, with over one-third of them supporting Mamdani.
Religion: Exit polls found that by a 2-to-1 margin, Jewish voters in New York City supported Cuomo over Mamdani. More Catholic voters supported Cuomo than Mamdani as well. Cuomo also edged out Mamdani among Protestant and other Christian voters. Voters of no religion or another religion supported Mamdani by wide margins. There were not enough Muslim voters polled to break down precisely how they voted.
Israel: The almost 4 in 10 voters who said that the candidates’ positions on Israel were “a major factor” to their votes split their support about evenly between Mamdani and Cuomo. The exit poll did not ask about their specific position on Israel.
Party: While almost 6 in 10 of voters in the election identified as Democrats and about two-thirds of them voted for Mamdani, Cuomo -- who ran as an independent -- won among Republicans, with around 7 in 10 Republicans supporting him and only about a quarter supporting Republican candidate Sliwa.
Trump approval: About 6 in 10 New York City voters strongly disapproved of Trump and they supported Mamdani by wide margins. Among the small share of voters who somewhat disapproved of Trump, a majority of voters supported Cuomo. Among the roughly quarter of New York City voters who approved of Trump, Cuomo performed better than the Republican candidate: about 7 in 10 supported Cuomo and about 2 in 10 supported Sliwa.
Education: A majority of New York City voters were college graduates, according to exit polling and a majority of them voted for Mamdani. Those with no college degree split slightly more for Cuomo.
New voters: Nearly 2 in 10 voters said it was the first time they voted in a New York City mayoral election and by a more than 2-1 margin, they supported Mamdani over Cuomo.
Length of time living in New York City: Relative newcomers to New York City were some of the most likely voters in the state to vote for Mamdani, with about 8 in 10 of those who have lived in New York City less than 10 years supporting Mamdani. He also earned over half of the support of New York City voters who lived there for over 10 years but were not born in New York. Voters who were born in New York City voted for Cuomo over Mamdani.
Ideology: About a quarter of New York City voters called themselves “very liberal,” and a wide majority of these voters supported Mamdani. Another roughly quarter said they were somewhat liberal and they also widely voted for Mamdani. More moderate voters supported Cuomo than Mamdani. Among conservative New York City voters, a majority supported Cuomo.
Renters vs. owners: Most New York City voters in this election were renters and about 6 in 10 of them supported Mamdani. Among the roughly 4 in 10 who own their homes, over half supported Cuomo.
Cost of living is the most important issue to New York City voters:
More than half of voters in New York City said the cost of living was the most important issue facing the city, dwarfing the other issues measured in ABC News exit polling, and around two-thirds of those voted for Mamdani. Under a quarter said crime was the most important issue (and two-thirds of those voters went for Cuomo). About 1 in 10 said immigration, with even fewer who said health care or transportation.
New York City voters on cost of living and the economy:
- Seven in 10 said that the cost of housing where they live is "a major problem." About 6 in 10 of those voted for Mamdani, while around a third voted for Cuomo.
- About two-thirds said that the city’s economy was "not so good" or "poor," while a third said it was "excellent" or "good." Among those who said it was not so good or poor, Mamdani and Cuomo roughly split the vote. Mamdani had majority support from the third of New York City voters who rated the economy positively.
- About 6 in 10 said their families were "holding steady" financially, while roughly 1 in 6 were getting ahead, and both of these groups broke somewhat evenly between Mamdani and Cuomo. Mamdani won a majority of voters who said their families were falling behind.
- Six in 10 think raising city taxes would do more to hurt the city’s economy, and a majority of those voters went for Cuomo. Roughly a third said raising city taxes would improve the economy, and a wide majority of them supported Mamdani.
California Proposition 50
Keys to Proposition 50 passing:
- Majorities of California voters across various demographic groups supported Proposition 50. That included majorities across age groups, White, Black, Hispanic and Asian voters, men and women, and both college graduates and those without college degrees who voted "yes" on Proposition 50.
- Roughly half of California voters said they were angry about the way things are going in the country, according to preliminary ABC News exit polling. About 9 in 10 of them voted "yes" on Proposition 50. Another roughly a quarter said they were "dissatisfied, but not angry," and a majority of them voted yes as well. About 1 in 6 said they were satisfied, with even fewer saying they are enthusiastic about the state of the county -- wide majorities of them voted "no."
- About 9 in 10 California voters said that each state's congressional district lines should be drawn "in general" by a non-partisan commission rather than the party in power.
- About 8 in 10 California voters who voted "yes" said that they voted that way more to counter the changes made by Republicans in other states while 1 in 6 said they voted that way because it is the best way to draw congressional district lines in California.
About half said they’re angry about the direction of the country:
Half of California voters said they were angry about the way things are going in the country. Roughly a quarter said they were "dissatisfied, but not angry." About 1 in 6 said they were satisfied, with even fewer saying they were enthusiastic about the state of the country.
California voters on the economy:
By a wide margin, more California voters said that the economy was the most important issue facing the state, with just under half saying this. About 2 in 10 said immigration, about 1 in 6 said health care, followed by crime and climate change.
About 6 in 10 voters said that the state of the economy was "not so good" or "poor," including about a quarter who said "poor."
Three in 10 California voters said their families were "falling behind" financially, while nearly twice as many said they were "holding steady," and just about 1 in 10 said they were "getting ahead."
About 4 in 10 California voters said that the cost of living where they live was "not at all affordable," with another roughly 4 in 10 saying it was "not very affordable." Under 1 in 6 said that where they lived was at least somewhat affordable.
California voters on issues:
- Over 6 in 10 California voters said that the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement has "gone too far." Just about a quarter said it's been about right and even fewer said the Trump administration’s actions on immigration enforcement has not gone far enough.
- About 6 in 10 California voters said that the governor should not cooperate with the Trump administration on immigration enforcement.
- Abot two-thirds of California voters are opposed to the federal government sending the National Guard to major cities in California.
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