Who’s watching?
Is a State of the Union a speech or a campaign event? Either way, there'll be a fair bit of cheerleading going on.
That's because Americans who identify with the president's party almost always constitute a plurality or even majority of viewers, according to post-speech polling. In 26 of 27 State of the Union or similar joint addresses to Congress, more fellow party identifiers watched than people who identified with the other major party -- the one exception came in 1995, when Gallup found the same share of Democrats and Republicans took in President Bill Clinton's speech. In fact, a larger share of the audience often identifies as independent than with the opposition party, even though independents tend to be less politically engaged.
The degree to which Trump's speech will attract a more Republican-tilted audience could say something about how people are engaging -- or not engaging -- with politics at the start of Trump's second term. For Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama, their first joint addresses to Congress featured especially lopsided audiences made up of viewers who predominantly hailed from their party. Yet in Trump's first term, his initial audience was not as overwhelmingly Republican -- perhaps because people were especially curious to see what a Trump speech in a formal setting would look like.
-Geoffrey Skelley, 538





