New US-Saudi security deal raises questions
The deal include the sale of F-35s to Saudi Arabia.
With much fanfare, President Donald Trump announced this week that he and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had signed a new Strategic Defense Agreement that would include the sale of stealth F-35 fighters to that country, but very few details have emerged about the agreement and what impacts it might have for the Middle East.
During the Saudi prince’s visit to Washington, Trump also announced that Saudi Arabia would now be considered a major non-NATO ally and that Saudi Arabia planned to boost its investment in the United States to a trillion dollars, a significant boost from the $600 million announced during Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia in May.
A White House fact sheet contained limited descriptions of the agreement beyond the sale of an undefined number of F-35s. According to the fact sheet, the agreement also includes the sale of 300 U.S.-made tanks to Saudi Arabia, makes it easier for American defense firms to operate in Saudi Arabia and increases cooperation in other areas, including civilian nuclear energy, artificial intelligence, and semiconductors.
However, the lack of precise details about the agreement has led some analysts to question what it really means and how it would address the security relationship with Israel.
“I think we're still kind of waiting to see what all this actually means,” Elizabeth Dent, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, told ABC News. “The information that we've so far received is helpful, but again, not enough.”
Dent said more information is needed about the strategic defense agreement in light of the executive order issued in September about Qatar that specifically provided security guarantees to that country. In 2022, the Biden administration had also named Qatar as a major non-NATO ally, which allowed it to benefit in the areas of defense trade and security cooperation.
“This is not something that the Senate is going to ratify, so it appears to be an executive agreement that is slightly more formal than Qatar's executive order,” said Dent.
The executive order on Qatar stated that “The United States shall regard any armed attack on the territory, sovereignty, or critical infrastructure of the State of Qatar as a threat to the peace and security of the United States.”
That arrangement “likely got the attention of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia,” according to Mick Mulroy, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and an ABC News contributor.
Mulroy believes the Saudis “will likely be seeking something similar to that executive order,” though that could mean the Trump administration will likely make it a requirement “for Saudi Arabia to normalize relations with Israel” to make that happen.
In his Oval Office meeting with Trump this week, the Saudi prince tied any movement towards joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations with Israel to a two-state solution for Palestinians, something the administration does not support.
One issue being raised about the F-35 sale is how the version to be sold to Saudi Arabia will compare with the version already sold to Israel. The U.S. has a legal requirement that any U.S. advanced weapons sales to partners in the Middle East will ensure Israel maintains a qualitative military edge, what is known as QME.
“As far as I’m concerned, I think they are both at a level where they should get top of the line,” Trump said of Saudi Arabia and Israel, which already have F-35s. “Israel’s aware, and they’re going to be very happy.”
“The United States and Israel have a long understanding, which is that Israel maintains the qualitative edge when it comes to its defense" Shosh Bedrosian, the spokeswoman for Israel's Prime Minister's Office said at a briefing on Thursday when asked about the sale.
"That has been true yesterday, that has been true today, and the Prime Minister believes that will be true tomorrow and in the future," she added.
But some on Capitol Hill, like Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., a long-time critic of Saudi Arabia’s human rights record, has raised concerns about whether the sale will maintain Israel’s QME and has said the Trump administration must fully explain “why this sale is in the vital national interest of the United States.”
However, some analysts believe the F-35 sale is an indication of how much the Trump administration sees Saudi Arabia as a key partner in the region.
It demonstrates that Trump “is going all-in on the U.S.-Saudi relationship,” Dan Shapiro, a former deputy assistant secretary of defense for the Middle East and US ambassador to Israel, said in a press release issued by the Atlantic Council.
Shapiro believes the deal with Saudi Arabia is likely to meet the QME threshold because of the precedent set in 2020 with the sale of F-35s in 2020 that passed a QME review, though the deal eventually did not go through.
“Israel will have been flying the F-35 for a decade and a half before the first Saudi plane is delivered, and Israel will have nearly seventy-five F-35s by then,” he added.
To Mulroy, the goal of the new strategic agreement appears to be to keep Saudi Arabia in America’s sphere of influence, but it should also not mean ignoring the country’s human rights record.
“Human rights has always been part of our foreign policy and always should be, but our presence and engagement in necessary, and the relationship between the countries is critical to both countries' security,” he said.
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