How Trump's beef plan, tariffs risk alienating farmers, GOP voters
Some farmers say they're fed up, also pointing to the Iran war and tariffs.
Matt Ubel, a farmer based in rural Wheaton, Kansas, says that high diesel and fertilizer prices driven by the war in Iran were already hurting his bottom line.
Now, he says he expects his profit margins will take another hit after President Donald Trump approved a temporary lift on tariffs for foreign inputs of 300,000 metric tons of beef to take effect in September.
"This wasn't about making cheaper groceries for the American people," Ubel told ABC News. "They need to invest in their farmers -- not import beef from other countries. They need to make farming sustainable here in the United States."
Ubel, the vice president of the Kansas Farmers Union who is also running for Pottawatomie County commissioner, cares for some 120 cattle. His frustrations reflect the ways Trump's trade policies could complicate GOP messaging on affordability just months out from the November midterms as Republicans fight to maintain control of Congress. Ubel said he voted for former President Barack Obama in 2012, but went for Trump in the last three presidential elections.
Some districts in agriculturally dominant states with the largest volume of cattle sales are the most competitive this election cycle, U.S. Department of Agriculture data from 2022 shows. Those include Kansas and Nebraska, but also Iowa -- home to a highly contested gubernatorial race and a slate of congressional races -- and Wisconsin's 3rd Congressional District, which could help determine control of Congress.
Why one Nebraska farmer says he's fed up with the GOP
The White House defended Trump's move, saying it's about both short-term and long-term needs.
"The U.S. beef market is currently grappling with insufficient supply to meet consumer demand, and the President’s action is helping meet short-term beef needs while the Administration works with American ranchers to expand domestic production and grow the American cattle herd, which is currently at a multi-decade low," said Kush Desai, a spokesman for the White House.
The National Cattleman’s Beef Association, which represents America's cattle producers and beef industry, is pushing back on Trump’s plan for a law to allow farmers and ranchers to "PROCESS THEIR OWN FOOD," saying it's "weakening federal meat inspection & food safety standards isn’t the answer."
Scott Thomsen, a fourth-generation Nebraska farmer, said he is calling it quits with the GOP.
"We have higher inflation, higher debt, a new war, and we're not America First when we're talking about importing beef," Thomsen said.
Last year, the three-time Trump voter said he was worried about a prolonged trade war but told ABC News he trusted in the Trump administration's plan to rebalance trade with China.
That was before the war in the Middle East spiked the cost of diesel fuel and fertilizer. And the president's new plan to import ground beef has rattled many ranchers. Renewed threats against Canada and "Economic D-Day" on Iran added further uncertainty to the future.
Thomsen said he is also angry with Nebraska's Republicans in Congress, who he said made "really soft" statements opposing the president's plan to import ground beef and did not "call out President Trump directly."
"They've supported this war. They voted for this debt. They've voted for this inflation, so I think me and a lot of people are having a hard time voting for anybody who is in office right now and anybody who's representing us right now," Thomsen said.
Several Nebraska Republicans have denounced Trump's move.
Nebraska Republican Sen. Pete Ricketts, who is running for reelection, wrote in a social media post that "flooding the market with lower quality beef compromises Nebraska farmers and ranchers." Nebraska Republican Sen. Deb Fischer, who is a cattle rancher herself, posted a similar message on social media, saying that Trump's beef plan "hurts our livestock industry and undermines the long-term solution: growing the U.S. cattle herd to meet demand."
Thomsen's feelings -- and those of other young Republicans like him -- could keep otherwise supportive Trump voters from showing up for Republicans in a year when Democrats and many independents are energized to vote against the GOP.
Competitive governor's race in Kansas
Back in Kansas, where there is a competitive gubernatorial race, Ubel said he's split between Trump-endorsed Republican state Senate President Ty Masterson and Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher.
Holscher blasted Trump for the administration's move to pause beef tariffs and Masterson for his silence, writing on social media that her Republican opponent is "nowhere to be found when Kansans need him."
For his part, Masterson broke with the president, according to a statement his campaign provided to ABC News.
"Ty Masterson stands with Kansas ranchers. Everyone wants lower prices at the grocery store, and the way to get there is to help American ranchers rebuild the herd, not import foreign beef," Garrett Henson, a spokesperson for Masterson's campaign, told ABC News.
"Ty shares the President's goal of lowering costs for families, and as governor he'll work with Kansas livestock producers, the best in the nation, to bring prices down: by cutting their costs, getting government out of their way, and growing the Kansas herd."
Impact of US-Canada trade war
The potential bruising effects of the U.S.-Canada trade war also concerns Ubel, who said there are "bigger issues at hand."
"I get where we're trying to come from with all these trade wars, but Canada has historically been a pretty good neighbor, so why do we want to keep ruffling that feather?" Ubel told ABC News.
During a radio interview with conservative host Glenn Beck last week, Trump called Canada one of "the worst countries" in the world to deal with and that they have taken "advantage" of the U.S.
The country's trade war with China over soybeans already made Ubel pivot. He and his brother purchased their family farm in 2015, and they typically farm crops such as corn, soybeans, wheat and milo.
"But the last two years, with the trade war and everything going on, the soybean market wasn't there, and our opportunity was in corn," Ubel said.
In the northeastern rural town of Robinson, Kansas, Jack Geiger, a cattleman running as an independent for the state House of Representatives, also expressed disappointment with the decision to ease tariffs on beef imports. The timing of the administration's move bothered him, too, he said.
"It's an attempt to do it earlier so that market does not get quote-unquote a head of steam going into the midterm elections," Geiger said. "The intervention last year happened in October. The intervention this year is happening in August."
Geiger, who also sits on the board of the Kansas Farmers Union, told ABC News that commodity producers had already been feeling the effects of inflation since 2022 -- and it isn't getting any easier.
"The reality is we have an aging farm population," Geiger said. "We have decreased herd numbers, and we also have consumer demand for protein products that has been increasing dramatically."
How beef move could play out in Kansas Senate race
Kansas GOP incumbent Sen. Roger Marshall, a Trump ally up for reelection, criticized the president's move on beef import tariffs on social media. "Americans aren’t short on protein options like chicken or pork. What’s short is the signal to US ranchers to grow the herd back," Marshall wrote.
In a tele-town hall on Friday, the senator sought to assuage concerns, telling constituents that he would work to bring down the cost of fertilizer but defended the war in the Middle East, saying, "we cannot let Iran have a nuclear weapon."
Marshall said that he, too, is "frustrated" by Trump's decision on foreign beef imports but pointed to the national decline in U.S. cattle herd. And he maintained that the country's "cattle markets are really solid."
"We just don't make enough hamburger in this country," Marshall said.
Ubel, however, said the administration's move was not about "cheaper hamburgers" but rather "market movement" to farmers' detriment.
And he said he is considering voting for Marshall's Democratic opponent, Rev. Adam Hamilton, a self-described moderate leading the largest United Methodist church in the country.
Hamilton has flayed his Republican opponent for not holding public town halls -- an argument that resonates with Ubel.
"If you're going to represent our state, come talk to me in person," Ubel said.
But the farmer -- who has railed against the two-party system -- said he is also unhappy with the Democrats.
"Both parties have lost touch with reality, and I think it's time that we start voting for people -- not the party," Ubel said.
He added: "We do have a say … and our vote counts."
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