Armenian PM Nikol Pashinyan claims victory in election seen as test of Russia's influence

YEREVAN, Armenia -- Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan early Monday claimed victory in a general election seen as a test of Russia's influence in the South Caucasus state, as the latest preliminary results showed his governing Civil Contract party came first with 49.82% of the vote.

Pashinyan and his party were looking for a strong mandate for a new geopolitical course, including distancing Armenia from Moscow and deepening cooperation with the West.

“The European Union is our main partner in democratic reform implementation, and we will continue that path,” Pashinyan said as he cast his vote on Sunday.

His main opponent, Samvel Karapetyan, is a billionaire who made his fortune in Russia and is under house arrest, accused of advocating for the government’s overthrow. Karapetyan, whose Strong Armenia bloc was the runner-up with 23.28% of the vote, rejects that charge as politically motivated.

Armenian investigators said they also issued six arrest warrants for members of Strong Armenia the day before the election, accusing them of buying votes. The party seeks to develop close business ties with Moscow and has accused Pashinyan of attempting to start a war with the Kremlin.

While the Central Election Commission says it has counted ballots from all electoral precincts, full results are only expected on Sunday. This is to give parties time to lodge complaints about any perceived irregularities.

‘Referendum on the future of the country'

Richard Giragosian, who heads the independent Regional Studies Center think tank in Armenia’s capital, Yerevan, described the vote as a “genuinely free and fair" election that “stands as a referendum on the future of the country.”

“This election provides a fresh mandate on sustaining the positive momentum of diplomatic engagement, normalization of relations with neighbors, and the continued diversification of Armenia’s security partners,” Giragosian told the AP on Monday.

Russia has hit Armenian exports with a barrage of restrictions in recent weeks, banning the import of Armenian flowers, some cognac and wine, potatoes, fish and more. While Moscow cited violations of import rules, the European Commission on Thursday described the move as “nothing short of economic coercion.”

President Vladimir Putin and other Russian officials also made thinly veiled threats comparing Armenia’s path to that already taken by Ukraine, which was invaded by Russia.

Moscow controls a significant portion of Armenia’s energy and infrastructure and supplies the country with cheap gas, a point driven home by Putin in his meetings with Pashinyan.

Pashinyan's party set to rule on its own

Armenia’s National Assembly must consist of at least 101 members elected for five-year terms. Parties must win at least 4% of the vote to enter, while blocs made up of three or more parties must hit 8%.

The Hayastan (Armenia) bloc led by former President Robert Kocharyan is also set to take seats, receiving 9.93% of the vote. The Prosperous or Blossoming Armenia party, led by pro-Russia business owner Gagik Tsarukyan, is hovering around the 4% threshold, with the latest results giving it 3.99%.

Turnout stood at 58.94%, according to the latest announcement by the election commission.

Preliminary results from the election commission suggested the governing party has won 61 seats in the National Assembly.

“This is enough to form a government without coalition partners, elect a prime minister, adopt the government program and state budget, as well as adopt most of the laws and parliamentary decisions independently,” said Giragosian, the analyst.

But Pashinyan would not command the parliamentary majority needed to pass constitutional amendments without a referendum, he added.

PM vows to continue peace process with neighboring Azerbaijan

Opposition parties have strongly criticized Pashinyan for attempting to normalize relations with neighboring Azerbaijan. The Armenian leader and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev initialed a document on moving toward a peace deal at the White House alongside U.S. President Donald Trump in August.

Armenia and Azerbaijan were locked in a decades-long conflict over Karabakh, a breakaway region that had been controlled for decades by ethnic Armenian forces backed by Armenia. Azerbaijan took control of the entire Karabakh region during a rapid offensive in 2023.

Pashinyan announced on Monday that Armenia intends to move toward “institutionalizing” a peace deal in the near future, and ratifying an agreement with the White House that would create a major transit corridor through Armenian territory to be named after Trump.

“It is important to confirm that this is a truly transformative project, as Armenia is becoming a crossroads of the world,” Pashinyan said at a meeting of a parliamentary committee on state and legal affairs.

His remark was a potential reference to the country's strategic geographical position, bridging Europe's hungry energy markets and Central Asia's gas fields.

Responses from Brussels and Moscow

Top EU officials congratulated Pashinyan following the tightly contested race, seen in Europe as a litmus test of Russia’s influence.

“We deeply value our partnership with a democratic Armenia that is drawing ever closer to Europe. Armenia can count on us," European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said in a social media post on Monday.

Kaja Kallas, the EU’s foreign policy chief, said the Armenian people have made their “democratic commitment to peace and also closer ties with Europe” despite “heavy Russian pressure and economic coercion.”

The bloc is preparing an economic support package for Armenia, Kallas told reporters at a news conference after a meeting with EU defense ministers on Monday.

Russia’s Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Monday that the elections in Armenia were held “amid unprecedented pressure on the opposition and interference from the West, primarily the EU.”

The ministry's spokesperson, Maria Zakharova, did not give examples of such interference, but said “the elections clearly demonstrated that Armenian society is extremely polarized.” She added that Moscow's approach to future relations will “take into account actual steps taken by the Armenian leadership."

——

AP writers Sam McNeil in Brussels and Menelaos Hadjicostis in Nicosia, Cyprus contributed.

——

An earlier version of this story wrongly stated that according to an earlier announcement by Armenia's election commission, turnout in the general election on Sunday stood at 97%. The correct figure at that time was 59.97%.