Nov 21
ABC News Photo Illustration
How immigration swung voters of color to Trump
Trump gained among nonwhite voters with conservative views on immigration.
November 20, 2024What the gender gap tells us about Trump's win
His appeals to young men and men of color may have paid off.
November 19, 2024Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world
But their losses were smaller than those in many other democracies.
November 18, 2024
Latest 538 Video
Latest 538 Headlines
November 21
What effect does weighting have on polls' accuracy?
The 538 team discusses how differences in accuracy in polling may be linked to methodology.
November 21
November 21
How pollsters' methodology may have changed
538’s Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik weigh in on whether pollsters changed their strategy in the last election cycle.
November 21
November 21
What the 2024 election tells us about past elections
538’s Galen Druke and the panel discuss what conclusions can be drawn from the 2024 presidential election and if it can tell us more about the 2016 and 2020 elections.
November 21
November 21
Gaetz is out. Will Trump's other Cabinet picks be confirmed?
Nomination fights are already causing headaches for the new GOP majority.
November 21
November 20
How immigration swung voters of color to Trump
Trump gained among nonwhite voters with conservative views on immigration.
November 20
November 19
What the gender gap tells us about Trump's win
His appeals to young men and men of color may have paid off.
November 19
November 18
Democrats aren't alone — incumbent parties have lost elections all around the world
But their losses were smaller than those in many other democracies.
November 18
November 15
Texas may finally pass school choice in 2025
The 2024 election created a pro-school choice majority in the state House.
November 15
November 14
Why voters chose Trump
Despite his unpopularity, he won on immigration, the economy and leadership.
November 14
November 14
What 2024 election polls showed about the Latino electorate
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke explain why accurate polling of Latino voters has proved difficult.
November 14
November 14
How the issue of immigration may evolve in a second Trump term
538's Galen Druke and Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, discuss how much is known about the mass deportation and immigration policy of president-elect Donald Trump.
November 14
November 14
Are Latino voters shifting or in a realignment?
Carlos Odio, co-founder of Equis Research, and 538's Galen Druke take a deep dive into whether the 2024 voting trends of Latino voters are a shift or a full-blown realignment.
November 14
November 13
Republicans won the House. Now comes the hard part.
The small GOP margin will make it hard to govern and keep the House in 2026.
November 13
November 11
How Democrats won Senate seats in states that Trump carried
Don't be fooled, though — split-ticket voting is still rare.
November 11
November 08
2024 polls were accurate but still underestimated Trump
A modest error in his favor was enough to sweep the swing states.
November 08
November 06
How Trump won over voters
The 538 team discusses how Donald Trump won the election despite being disliked by a majority of Americans.
November 06
November 06
What early exit polls tell us about this year’s election
538’s G. Elliot Morris shares data on voter priorities in the exit polls.
November 06
November 06
Did voter turnout hurt Democrats in the 2024 election?
538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliot Morris discuss how voter turnout was less than 2020 and how that impacted this year’s election.
November 06
November 06
Republicans won the Senate
How big will their majority be?
November 06
November 06
How Donald Trump won the presidency
We'll have to wait for fuller data, but here are 3 possible reasons.
November 06
November 05
What would happen if Harris and Trump tie in the Electoral College?
The race would go to Congress, where Republicans would likely have an advantage.
November 05
November 05
538's final forecasts for the 2024 election
The presidency and House are toss-ups, and the GOP is likely to win the Senate.
November 05
November 04
The biggest takeaway from the latest Iowa poll | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke discusses the latest Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris leading former President Donald Trump in Iowa on the eve of Election Day.
November 04
November 04
Are more women motivated to vote on abortion? | 538 Politics podcast
538's Galen Druke and The New York Times's Ruth Igielnik discuss how the issue of abortion could be driving more women to vote, according to the latest polling data.
November 04
November 04
49 ballot measures to watch in the 2024 election
Across 41 states, voters will decide on abortion, drug legalization and more.
November 04
November 04
How to tell who's on track to win on election night
538's benchmarks estimate how well candidates need to do in each county.
November 04
November 01
The election isn’t a popularity contest
The 538 team discusses why the candidate with the higher favorability rating isn’t running away with the election.
November 01
November 01
Are women of color energized to vote?
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich debate the meaning of the spike in voter registrations after Kamala Harris announced her presidential campaign.
November 01
November 01
Can the Washington primary predict the general election?
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss what Washington state's primary can tell us about who will win in November.
November 01
October 29
How will young men vote in the 2024 election?
538’s G. Elliott Morris shares the latest polling data on how young men are voting.
October 29
October 29
Does only 3% of America care about democracy?
The 538 team weighs in on a study about whether voters would flip parties if their candidate did something anti-democratic.
October 29
October 29
How to look at early voting data responsibly
With the 2024 presidential election a week away, 538’s Galen Druke and G. Elliott Morris discuss the relevancy of early voting data.
October 29
October 24
The backlash against liberalism on college campuses | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins talk about why some liberal academic ideas have been rejected by those with college degrees.
October 24
October 24
Is education the main dividing line in U.S. politics? | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the Diploma Divide and whether college degrees have become a deciding factor in political affiliation.
October 24
October 24
Does academia have a liberalism problem? | 538 Politics podcast
538’s Galen Druke and professors Matt Grossman and David Hopkins discuss the influence of liberalism on college campuses.
October 24
October 22
Nebraska's Senate election is surprisingly close
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich look at recent polling in the close race for Nebraska’s Senate seat and why an independent candidate is doing so well.
October 22
October 22
The difference between undecided voters and swing voters
The 538 team considers whether voters who are undecided or voters who go back and forth between parties are the same thing.
October 22
October 22
What percent of voters are truly undecided?
538’s Galen Druke and Nathaniel Rakich discuss how many voters are genuinely up for grabs in the 2024 presidential election.
October 22
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