Pennsylvania primaries 2024: Lee and Fitzpatrick survive, matchups set for November

538 tracked congressional and downballot primary races in the Keystone State.

By538 Staff via five thirty eight logo
Last Updated: April 23, 2024, 6:00 PM EDT

Pennsylvania is already in the thick of campaign season for November's presidential and U.S. Senate races, but on April 23, Democrats and Republicans in the Keystone State chose their candidates in a slate of other consequential races down the ballot this fall.

Among the key races to watch: a couple of incumbent House members — progressive Democrat Summer Lee and moderate Republican Brian Fitzpatrick — both fended off challengers from their right, and ballots are now set for a few other consequential contests that could help determine control of the House next year. Plus, some key battle lines for control of the state government in November are set, with the parties finalizing their candidates for attorney general, auditor, treasurer and both chambers of the state legislature.

538 reporters and contributors broke down the election results as they came in with live updates, analysis and commentary. Read our full live blog below.

Latest headlines:

Here's how the news is developing.
Meredith Conroy Image
ByMeredith Conroy
Apr 23, 2024, 9:13 PM EDT

Incumbent women face more challengers than incumbent men

As Geoffrey just mentioned, Summer Lee is leading her primary challenger, Bhavini Patel, in the 12th District. Political science research actually finds that incumbent women in Congress are more likely to face challengers than incumbent men. This is due to several factors, such as a history of women's underrepresentation which gives the impression that female incumbents are more vulnerable; this leads to higher quality challengers, too.

—Meredith Conroy, 538 contributor

Monica Potts Image
ByMonica Potts
Apr 23, 2024, 9:12 PM EDT

Mackenzie leading the Republican race for Pennsylvania's 7th

The three Republicans running for the chance to defeat Rep. Susan Wild in Pennsylvania's competitive 7th District are all anti-abortion. With 26 percent of the expected vote in, state Rep. Ryan Mackenzie has a lead with 42 percent of the vote. Mackenzie has told a local news station that the issue is best left to the states because there's no consensus at the federal level. In Pennsylvania, he's voted for a constitutional amendment saying there's no right to taxpayer-funded abortions.

—Monica Potts, 538

Geoffrey Skelley Image
ByGeoffrey Skelley
Apr 23, 2024, 9:03 PM EDT

Lee's lead grows as votes cast on Election Day are counted

Lee now leads Patel 57 percent to 43 percent in Pennsylvania's 12th District Democratic primary, with 57 percent of the expected vote reporting. Allegheny County has begun reporting votes cast on Election Day (that is, not early or by mail), and Lee is winning about 3 in 4 of those votes so far. That edge may not last, but considering Lee leads 55 percent to 45 percent among the early and mail votes, she doesn't need much to hold her lead. A Patel comeback looks quite unlikely. In fact, Decision Desk HQ projected the race for Lee a few minutes ago. We're still waiting for a projection from ABC, though.

—Geoffrey Skelley, 538

ByCooper Burton
Apr 23, 2024, 8:56 PM EDT

No surprises in the primaries for U.S. Senate

As expected, given that both were unopposed, ABC News has projected that both Republican David McCormick and Democratic Sen. Bob Casey will win their respective primaries and advance to the general election for Pennsylvania's U.S. Senate seat this November. Casey starts out with a slight advantage in both fundraising and the polls, but most analysts are still predicting a tight race.

—Cooper Burton, 538

Sen. Bob Casey speaks during an event at AFSCME Council 13 offices, Mar. 14, 2024, in Harrisburg, Pa.
Marc Levy/AP

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